Base case for a democratic resurgence: We're (not entirely) doomed

ideas from psychology and neuroscience

My last two pieces laid out the optimistic and pessimistic cases for a democratic resurgence over the coming decade, based on some ideas from psychology and neuroscience (links below).

Photo by Jametlene Reskp on Unsplash

Considering different outcomes - even ones you’re not necessarily convinced by - is a very useful way to overcome biases in your thinking, and maybe even help you get a better sense of what’s really lurking in the back of your mind (aka, your default mode network).

Optimistic prospects for a democratic resurgence

Pessimistic prospects for a democratic resurgence

Here’s my base case (most likely scenario) for a democratic resurgence in the coming decade. I consider the interplay of neuroscience, psychology, likely technology, and differences between nations.

There’s a link to a downloadable PDF collecting these scenarios together at bottom as well.

Topics

1. Uneven Progress in Education and Civic Literacy

2. A Persistent Cognitive Divide Opens

3. Evidence-Based Educational Policy Remains Contentious

4. The Myth of the “Magic Bullet”, and the Reality of Human Learning

5. A Tale of Two Trends: Literacy Soars While Inequalities Persist

6. Emerging Democracies Face Unique Educational Challenges

7. Social Media Remains a Battleground

8. Hybrid Governance Models Emerge

9. We’re Not Entirely Doomed: A Fragmented Future

Uneven Progress in Education and Civic Literacy

Developed nations continue to see some uneven and incremental improvements in civic and general literacy. Wealthier, urban populations see greater improvements, and older, rural, and marginalised groups continue to lag.

Backing this view up are recent, disturbing data suggesting there are disimprovements in literacy in many countries at present. The OECD has sounded the alarm with an enormous multination study, concluding that ‘Adult skills in literacy and numeracy declining or stagnating in most OECD countries’, especially in older adults.

A useful dissent by data journalist, John Burns-Murdoch for the Financial Times, points out that this decline is primarily concentrated among middle-aged and older adults.