How bad will you feel when your side loses the election?
We're terrible at predicting how we will feel
TL,DR
People consistently overestimate how personally devastating losses in sports or elections will feel to them - predicting prolonged disappointment that rarely matches reality.
We are wired to expect worst-case emotional scenarios, even though we’re naturally quite resilient.
This over-prediction of unhappiness stems from certain common misjudgments: we forget how adaptable we are, how quickly we move on, and how other distractions or priorities soon take over.
How will you feel?
There’s a major election underway. You’ve bought the hats, put up the signs, knocked on doors, and everyone you know has voted for your preferred candidate - the one you think you adore.
And then your side loses! What?
How was that possible? EVERYBODY you know voted for your preferred candidate.
‘It’s election time, and with it comes the periodic return of one of my least favorite political talking points. It’s the notion that film critic Pauline Kael, in 1972 or at some indeterminate time afterwards, said that she couldn’t believe or understand how Richard Nixon won the election, because “no one I know voted for him.”
To be clear, Kael didn’t say that - but the alleged remark catches a few interesting things. Most people are pretty under-informed regarding sampling methods used in polling: relying on information local to your social circle does not predict how the country at large votes.
However, one tech edgelord has said it:
(BTW, I have dunked on Elon’s extravagent claims before:
So you're caught off guard by the result: your candidate loses, and you are ‘emotional’ as a result.
What will you think when you lose?
You don’t know anyone who intended to vote for the other candidate - therefore nobody voted for them (ha - here’s common cognitive glitch). There was cheating or something or other went on - so we end up with the phenomenon of election denialism - the straightforward inability to acknowledge that your side just lost.
This is a cognitively-curious position to be in: it requires that you repudiate the evidence of your own eyes and ears - the plain truth - in favour of an identity-based (and not evidence-based) shared reality. You must say you believe the election was stolen.
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So, how will you feel when your side loses?
Voting for, and committing publically to, a particular candidate, means you have developed a parasocial relationship with the candidate. And then they go and lose! Of course, you’re going to be unhappy.
But for how long? And does the depth and strength of your emotional state predict well how you will feel in the future?
We tend to overestimate the emotional impact of losing in contexts such as sports and elections. Fans who are highly identified with a team experience amplified emotional reactions to outcomes, leading to them anticipating negative feelings when expecting defeat.
However, once the actual outcome occurs, studies find the emotional distress is often less severe than initially expected.
You get over it - for there’s always next time - surely you’ll win then!
(Lots more btl, including impact bias, heuristics, and a reading list)
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